Good Morning. It's Another 'Day of Rage' in the Middle East

 JERUSALEM- Friday morning at 4:40 the muezzin's amplified call-to-prayer heralded a freshly-declared Day of Rage.

But it's always a Day of Rage somewhere in the Muslim and/or Arab world. It's as if the civilized world was up against an Islamist theology-on-crack.

Foremost, Islam is at war with itself. 

For now, the Middle East's Western-imposed state-system is unraveling. Most noticeably, in former-Syria and former-Iraq. In Syria, Sunnis are Shiites and battling; the Shiites are backing the schismatic Alawites of Bashar Assad. The Sunnis in Syria take time out to kill each other too (ISIS versus al-Qaida-affiliated Arabs).

The Shiite Persians have arrived in the form of Iran's Revolutionary Guards. The Shiite Arabs of Hezbollah, from former-Lebanon, are on the scene to help the Alawites and Hezbollah's Persian patrons.

About 210,00 people have died in Syria.

Millions have fled or been dislocated. Tens of thousands have now made their way to Europe. 

Compare what is happening in Syria to the ongoing 100-year-long Arab-Zionist conflict.

"Israeli police kill more Palestinians in Jerusalem. Latest killings bring death toll to 32 as Israel orders deployment of soldiers and sets up checkpoints," according to Al Jazeera (whose reporting, incidentally, is hardly less egregious than the BBC's or CNN's, the wire services or, on an average day, The New York Times').  

Even if that number were accurate, and even if most of the "32" were not killers or foiled murderers – all of them died because of Arab-initiated violence.

Notwithstanding seeing what Islamist and Arab fanaticism has wrought in the surrounding countries – and despite enjoying a comparative utopia under Jewish "occupation" the Palestinians as a society have again embraced militant intransigence and terrorist violence.

It might as well be 1929 all over again, given the nonsensical claims that the Jews want to destroy Muslim shrines on the Temple Mount.

Could someone please tell the Palestinians to open their eyes; to set aside blind rage  and feel around for reality.

In former-Yemen, Shiite Houthis are battling Saudi-backed Sunnis; al-Qaida Sunnis are fighting all the Shiites and select Sunnis too. 

Saudi Arabia is on the outs with al-Qaida after having provided some of its initial start-up capital.  The Saudis are bombing the Shiites in Yemen. The Islamic State (Sunni) wants to capture Yemen as part of its Caliphate. The Persians (who fancy a Shiite Persian-led Caliphate) are backing the Houthi Arabs.

Some 6,000 people have been killed in the latest round of the long-running Yemen conflict.

Head-spinning! No wonder it is just easier to stand in "solidarity with Palestine" as opposed to actually understanding the nature of unrest in the Middle East.

Israel is a comparative oasis. From the Mediterranean to the River Jordan the "occupied" Palestinians (citizens and non-citizens) are safer, freer, and economically better-off than their compatriots in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Syria – and in the Hamas-controlled Gaza (a noxious petri-dish experiment for Palestinian statehood).

The main population centers in the West Bank are self-administered by the Arabs. Until the second intifada's suicide bombings, a Palestinian could drive from Ramallah to Tel Aviv for lunch.

I suppose the Palestinian Arabs are lucky to have the Jews as their enemies. This brings them support from Europe's "liberals" and leftists, from its rightists and fascists. The Persians and Turks (who have no particular love for the Arabs or each other) can agree to champion the Palestinians.

On Thursday, nearly 50 worshippers were killed in a Nigerian mosque by Boko Haram – formerly acolytes of al-Qaida now siding with a more winning horse, ISIS.

So far, some 17,000 Nigerians have been killed and about 2.5 million made homeless due to Muslim-on-Muslim violence.

There are 57 members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation – 57 countries that seek to be regarded as Muslim political societies! 

But God help Israel for asking the Palestinians to recognize it as a Jewish state. Of OIC members 22 are also members of the Arab League, though some are not genuine states (Palestine) and others are failed and unraveling polities (Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen etc.). 

The Palestinians might also consider what's going on in some of the more prominent non-Arab Muslim states: Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Pakistan, for instance, has been helping to orchestrate the upheaval in Afghanistan. Iran is the world's top champion of anti-civilian warfare. Its nuclear program threatens the entire region. Afghanistan is a hopeless non-state and a roach motel for terrorist groups seeking a base of operations.

Is that really what Palestinians want for the West Bank? 

While "32" Palestinians have purportedly died at the hands of the Jews in "occupied" Palestine and "occupied" Jerusalem, elsewhere this week Muslims have bombed Muslims in Turkey and Chad taking scores more lives. And unlike the "32" it is unlikely any of these dead tried to stab anyone or blow anyone up or run their cars into anyone waiting for a bus.

This week, the murky picture of who was responsible for the 1988 destruction of Pan Am flight 103 got a bit clearer. It seems new evidence ties the former head of Libya's intelligence service and his top bomb-maker to the crime. It is not clear if Libya was subcontracting for Iran or acting on its own.

All this is just part of the context for today's Palestinian day of rage.

The rage began even before daybreak when Palestinians rampaged through Joseph's Tomb (a Jewish shrine) in Palestinian Authority-controlled Nablus. Shamefacedly, Mahmud Abbas has denounced the attack – which obviously detracts from his canard that Muslim shrines under Israeli jurisdiction are endangered.

The Arabs have tried pan-Arabism and Arab nationalism and regular nationalism; now they're back to pan-Islam.

Bottom line: The Palestinian Arab struggle against Israel is hardly about "settlements" or the "occupation" or the Temple Mount or "east" Jerusalem. It is not aimed at creating a Palestinian state "alongside" Israel.

Nor is it about Palestinian "frustration" or the lack of a "peace process" (see my Oct. 9, 2015 post).

It is about the refusal of Islamists to allow any other people a slice of sovereign space anywhere in the Middle East.

Israel's dovish journalists / analysts seem momentarily gutted over Abbas's deportment; particularly his transparent lie claiming that Israel has a methodical policy of "extrajudicial" killings of innocent Arab children, women, and men in the guise of self-defense. 

The lame-stream press has sought to Photoshop Abbas's mendacity employing headlines such as: "Conflicting Accounts of Jerusalem Strife Surround a Wounded Arab Boy;" and referring to stabbers as "suspects." 

The New York Times reports (ahem) that Israeli officials "jumped" on Abbas's "apparent misstatement."

But the Israeli dovish media is not willing to give Abu Mazen a pass .. at least for now even if the apparent, alleged, purported, suspected Times is.

Few doubt that the latest outbreak of Palestinian violence has been "spontaneous."

Though the combustible environment for the spontaneity was made inevitable by Abbas's Fatah. Abbas himself said Jews had been defiling the Temple Mount. That's a message Palestinians have been hearing also from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Palestinian Knesset Caucus, Raed Salah's so-called northern branch – in short, from their entire Palestinian Arab leadership.

They've been abetted by "Palestine's" semi-official Fatah and Hamas media. (Some of the Fatah media is actually funded by EU monies.)

Thus, it is in this context that the current uprising is taking place. Young Palestinians are echoing in their social media the messages heard in their mosques, from their elders, and from political elites.

The need for Jews to defend themselves effectively and efficiently has left not only the State Department spokesman uncomfortable over "excessive" use of force, it has left some Diaspora Jews even more discomfited. 

Some of the uncomfortable are wondering why the Diaspora Jewish establishment is not treating both sides -- Israelis and Palestinians -- in a evenhanded manner. 

After all, in their world there is no "right or wrong;" such notions are passe. 

In other circles it is fashionable in a sort of smug, willful way, to embrace naiveté and talk about feeling the pain of the enemy. 

On this Day of Rage though, what Israelis are in practice nervous about and some are feeling is an enemy knife in the stomach. 

Hapless Herzog Invokes Out-of-Tricks Abbas

Opposition leader Isaac Herzog had a golden opportunity at the opening of yesterday's Knesset session to demonstrate statesmanship and his leadership meddle.

He could have said that now was the time to pull together. Now is not the time for partisan party politics.

He could have said that though he is uncomfortable with the policies and – yes – the slippery personality and character of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu …now is nonetheless to pull together.

Now is the time for a national unity government to boost morale during an ever expanding security crisis. It is not the time to talk in pointless cliches. It is time to face the harsh reality of Palestinian Arab intentions.

But what did Herzog do? He followed the advice of his media advisors who've told him he should stop talking like a wobbly wonk and act tough.

So,  facing Netanyahu he declared that there is "no reason to join your failed government, a government that badly failed in handling the matter of the Iranian nuclear program, that brought us to international isolation, to an impasse and to zero percent growth of the Israeli economy and which embarked on an all-out war on freedom of speech and on the Israeli media. Netanyahu and [Jewish Home Party head Naftali] Bennett, you have to go home. Your path is what has failed. It is your policy that led us to a dead end."

He's right that this is a failed government – in no small measure because after the elections he refused broaden it. No less than Netanyahu, Herzog put politics over country. 

He's right that Netanyahu mishandled the Iranian dilemma – but no one imagines that Herzog would have done better on the substance of the issue. 

Though he would probably not have alienated the US administration as Netanyahu has done. Herzog would have gone in the opposite extreme.

That line about "war on freedom of speech" might seem unintelligible. I think what he means is that the government has expressed interest in having better oversight for groups funded aboard that act as agents of foreign governments (the US has a foreign agents registration act). 

Or he might mean that his own undemocratic efforts to stop publication of the single newspaper in the country that is pro-Netanyahu have been stymied. I really don’t know.  

Staring at Netanyahu (as sirens and ambulances were traversing the city responding to the stabbing by Palestinian Arabs in Pisgat Zeev) Herzog said he doesn't "need to be a minister in your dead-end, vision-less government. The conflict that you have been managing in recent years has turned into a knife in the back of Israel’s citizens. A knife in the back of Israel's citizens everywhere in this country. You, who promised to be Mr. Security and defense minister, have failed."

I'm no Netanyahu fan. But no one seriously imagines that Herzog has any answers. His one contribution would have been to broaden the government. He's got a bit of talent on the Labor bench that could have contributed some wisdom to the cabinet.

What would Herzog do if he were prime minister?  

About the only trick up his sleeve is that Mahmoud Abbas speaks to him. He told Netanyahu: "I updated you and the public that Abu Mazen was worried, that he warned of the possibility of the outbreak of a new, third, young people's intifada, incited by Facebook and Twitter. He told me: 'I fear a loss of control over my young generation, which has lost all hope for change.' And I [Herzog] feel as if I'm sitting down with prime minister Golda Meir before the Yom Kippur War. The person who rejected every peace proposal earlier. The writing is on the wall, and you are like the three monkeys: you don’t hear, don’t see, don’t speak."

Slightly incoherent, I know. But that's Herzog.

As Dennis Ross's new book shows Netanyahu was himself willing to make massive concessions but couldn't get Palestinian agreement on security or on recognizing Israel's existence as a Jewish state. The Palestinians say the Jews have no legitimate right to be in Israel. 

If Israel had pulled back to more or less the 1949 Armistice Lines (from whence the 1967 war commenced) as Herzog advocates even today, young Palestinians would have admired Abbas as bringing them closer to Israel's destruction in stages. He means that just as Golda didn't listen to her generals (not quite accurate but, no matter) Netanyahu didn't listen to General Herzog.

It is true that Abbas can't control his young people but he CAN incite them. 

That's what he did in his UN speech; that's what he did earlier when he spoke of Jews polluting the Temple Mount with their feet, and that's what he does when his (EU funded) media circulate articles and images and sermons that are anti-Semitic and inculcate hatred of Jews.

Abbas and Herzog share one thing:  both are ever more irrelevant to what's happening on the ground.

What Ben Rhodes Doesn't Understand About Hope, Horizons & Palestinian Intentions

I heard Ben Rhodes, the U.S. deputy national security adviser, talking to Ilana Dayan on Army Radio Thursday morning, while I was driving to a meeting in the Tel Aviv area.

Rhodes is one of President Barack Obama's most loyal aides – Dayan (who is a top notch journalist and leans in the dovish direction) noted his longevity which is atypical -- most of the original White House crowd is long gone.

In addition to the customary bunch-of-words-strung-together you'd expect to hear from a professional wordsmith, Rhodes commented that one of the reasons the Palestinian Arabs had (again) turned to murderous violence is that there is no diplomatic solution on the horizon; there is a sense of hopelessness. If only there were a horizon of hope, he implied, this would not be happening.

That sounds reasonable. Only that it is wrong and shows how little he (and the administration he speaks for) understands Palestinian Arab sentiment.

Back on September 13, 1993, Israel and the PLO signed the Oslo Accords known as the Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements. 

This was the apex of hope for Palestinians (and many Israelis). Here was something more than a diplomatic horizon. Here was a blueprint for the creation of Palestinian Arab interim self-government. In return, the PLO (supposedly) recognized Israel and (supposedly) committed to stop terrorism (i.e. anti-civilian warfare).

So, most reasonable folks would agree that September 13, 1993 might be a good starting point to gauge the correlation between "hope" or political horizon and Palestinian behavior.

What happened next?

Sep 24 93 - Yigal Vaknin was stabbed to death in an orchard near the trailer home where he lived near the village of Basra. A squad of the HAMAS's Iz a-Din al Kassam claimed responsibility for the attack.

Oct 9 93 Dror Forer and Aran Bachar were murdered by terrorists in Wadi Kelt in the Judean Desert. The Popular Front and the Islamic Jihad 'Al-Aqsa Squads' each publicly claimed responsibility.

Oct 24 93 Two IDF soldiers, Staff Sgt. (res.) Ehud Rot, age 35, and Sgt. Ilan Levi, age 23, were killed by a HAMAS Iz a-Din al Kassam squad. The two entered a Subaru with Israeli license plates outside a Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip, whose passengers were apparently terrorists disguised as Israelis. Following a brief struggle, the soldiers were shot at close range and killed. Hamas publicly claimed responsibility for the attack.

Oct 29 93 Chaim Mizrahi, resident of Beit-El, was kidnapped by three terrorists from a poultry farm near Ramallah. He was murdered and his body burned. Three Fatah members were convicted of the murder on July 27, 1994.

Nov 7 93 Efraim Ayubi of Kfar Darom, Rabbi Chaim Druckman's personal driver, was shot to death by terrorists near Hebron. HAMAS publicly claimed responsibility for the murder.

Nov 9 93 Salman 'Id el-Hawashla, age 38, an Israeli Bedouin of the Abu Rekaik tribe who was driving a car with Israeli plates, was killed by three armed men driving a truck hijacked from the Gaza municipality, in a deliberate head-on collision.

Nov 17 93 Sgt. 1st Cl. Chaim Darina, age 37, was stabbed by a Gazan terrorist while seated at the cafeteria at the Nahal Oz road block at the entrance to the Gaza Strip. The perpetrator was apprehended. The Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the murder.

Nov 24 93 Maurice (Moshe) Edri, age 65, was killed in a terrorist attack in Netanya

Dec 1 93 Shalva Ozana, age 23, and Yitzhak Weinstock, age 19, were shot to death by terrorists from a moving vehicle, while parked on the side of the road to Ramallah because of engine trouble. Weinstock died of his wounds the following morning. Iz a-Din al Kassam claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it was carried out in retaliation for the killing by Israeli forces of Imad Akel, a wanted HAMAS leader in Gaza.

Dec 5 93 David Mashrati, a reserve soldier, was shot and killed by a terrorist attempting to board a bus on route 641 at the Holon junction. The Islamic Jihad Shekaki group claimed responsibility for the attack.

Dec 6 93 Mordechai Lapid and his son Shalom Lapid, age 19, were shot to death by terrorists near Hebron. HAMAS publicly claimed responsibility for the attack.

Dec 22 93 Eliahu Levin and Meir Mendelovitch were killed by shots fired at their car from a passing vehicle in the Ramallah area. HAMAS claimed responsibility.

Dec 23 93 Anatoly Kolisnikov, an Ashdod resident employed as a relief watchman at a construction site there, was stabbed to death while on duty.

Dec 24 93 Lieut.Col. Meir Mintz, commander of the IDF special forces in the Gaza area, was shot and killed by terrorists in an ambush on his jeep at the T-junction in Gaza. The HAMAS Iz a-Din al Kassam squads publicly claimed responsibility for the attack.

 Dec 31 93 Chaim Weizman and David Bizi were found murdered in a Ramle apartment. ID cards of two Gaza residents were found in the apartment, together with a leaflet of the Popular Front 'Red Eagle' group, claiming responsibility for the murder.

Jan 12 94 Moshe Becker of Rishon Le-Zion was stabbed to death by three Palestinian employees while working in his orchard. The Popular Front claimed responsibility for the murder.

Jan 14 94 Grigory Ivanov was stabbed to death by a terrorist in the industrial zone at the Erez junction, near the Gaza Strip. HAMAS claimed responsibility for the attack.

Feb 9 94 Ilan Sudri, a taxi driver, was kidnapped and murdered while returning home from work. The Islamic Jihad Shekaki group sent a message to the news agencies claiming responsibility for the murder.

Feb 9 94 Shai Shuker, aged 22 of Herzliya, was killed in a terrorist attack in Tira

Feb 10 94 Naftali Sahar, a citrus grower, was murdered by blows to his head. His body was found in his orchard near Kibbutz Na'an.

Feb 13 94 Noam Cohen, age 28, member of the General Security Service, was shot and killed in an ambush on his car. Two of his colleagues who were also in the vehicle suffered moderate injuries. HAMAS claimed responsibility for the attack.

Feb 17 94 Yuval Golan, stabbed on December 29, 1993 by a terrorist near Adarim in the Hebron area, died of his wounds.

Feb 19 94 Zipora Sasson, resident of Ariel and five months pregnant, was killed on the trans-Samaria highway in an ambush by shots fired at her car. The terrorists were members of HAMAS.

Feb 25 94 Sam Eisenstadt, age 80, was assaulted with an axe in the center of Kfar Saba. He died of his wounds shortly afterwards.

I want to interrupt this litany (it is only partial) to sadly acknowledge that on February 25, 1994 Baruch Goldstein massacred 29 unarmed Palestinian Arabs at the Cave of the Patriarchs in Hebron.

Back to the Arabs. 

On Mar 23 94 Victor Lashchiver, employed as a guard at the Income Tax offices in east Jerusalem, was shot and killed near Damascus Gate on his way to work. The Popular Front claimed responsibility for the attack.

Mar 29 94 Yitzhak Rothenberg, age 70 of Petah Tikva, was attacked on a construction site by two residents of Khan Yunis by axe blows to the head. He died several days later of his wounds. The murderers, apprehended the next day, stated that they carried out the attack in order to clear themselves of suspected collaboration with the Israeli authorities.

Mar 31 94 Yosef Zandani, age 28 of Bnei Ayish, near Gedera, was found murdered in his apartment. Near the body was a leaflet of the DFLP "Red Star", explaining that the murder was carried out in revenge for the shooting of one of its members by an Israeli citizen. The Israeli acted in self-defense.

Apr 6 94 Asher Attia, 48, of Afula, bus driver; Vered Mordechai, 13, of Afula; Maya Elharar, 17, of Afula; Ilana Schreiber, 45, a teacher from Kibbutz Nir David; Meirav Ben-Moshe, 16, of Afula; Ayala Vahaba, 40, a teacher from Afula; and Fadiya Shalabi, 25, of Iksal were killed in a car-bomb attack on a bus in the center of Afula. HAMAS claimed responsibility for the attack. Ahuva Cohen Onalla, 37, wounded in the attack, died of her wounds on April 25.

Apr 7 94 Yishai Gadassi, age 32 of Kvutzat Yavne, was shot and killed at a hitchhiking post at the Ashdod junction by a member of HAMAS. The terrorist was killed by bystanders at the scene.

Apr 13 94 Rahamim Mazgauker, 34, of Hadera; David Moyal, 26 of Ramat Gan, an Egged mechanic; Daga Perda, 44, who immigrated from Ethiopia in 1991; Bilha Butin, 49, of Hadera; and Sgt. Ari Perlmutter, 19, of Ir Ovot in the Arava were killed in a suicide bombing attack on a bus in the central bus station of Hadera. HAMAS claimed responsibility for the attack.

So within the first six months or so of being offered an unprecedented political horizon the Palestinian Arabs barely took a break from their blood-lust.

Ben Rhodes might want to take a closer look at Palestinian intentions. If he did he'd understand that this issue isn't hope or horizons or the illusion of momentum the peace process offers Europeans and Americans. It isn't about settlements (there were no settlements between 1948 and 1967). It is "original sin" or as the Arabs call it the "nakba" -- the creation of Israel within any boundaries,

When Arafat proposed the phased destruction of Israel to his comrades and his polity -- they balked. Many would not even suspend the "struggle" because, what if, what it they stopped the killing and practiced coexistence and then lost their will to kill....the will to return to the "struggle" somewhere down the line once Israel pulled back to the 1949 Armistice Lines.

Simply put, the Palestinians are engaged in a zero sum struggle.

Until Ben Rhodes comprehends Palestinian intentions he will continue to offer well articulated banalities about finding horizons to end the "conflict."

He means well, no doubt. But it is our lives that are at stake.

PS. Please don't excuse the violence with the mantra that the extremists were trying to torpedo Oslo. You can't have it both ways: You can't credibly argue that when there is no hope some Palestinians turn to violence, but when there is hope other Palestinians turn to violence.  

After a Night of Knives - The "spontaneous" Uprising Accelerates

Some context.

The Zionist enterprise is engaged in a Long War against forces that oppose a Jewish presence in the land of Israel. Anywhere in the land of Israel.

In the course of the past 100 years the voice of Arab moderation has been stamped out. Extinguished, The Arab moderates are in the cemeteries – killed by their own people.

On some flimsy pretext that Jews visiting the Temple Mount has changed the "status quo" or that such visits pollute the Muslim holy place, Arab leaders have engaged in frothing-at-the-mouth incitement. 

I'm talking now about comparative Palestinian moderates such as the Arab caucus in the Israeli Knesset. And Mahmoud Abbas, the impotent, Hamlet-like Palestinian president-for-life.

Add in the blood-curdling Jew-hating official propaganda from Fatah and Hamas – promulgated in their media outlets (some EU-funded), and further disseminated by al Jazeera Arabic and the like, and the result is "spontaneous" lone-wolf attacks.

Once these lone-wolf and small group attacks – like the stabbings, "rite-of-passage" (as The New York Times explains them) rock throwing, & Molotov cocktail hurling – reach a tipping point, Fatah (al Aksa Martyrs), Hamas, and Islamic Jihad (among others) will seek to take charge of the now mobilized but temporarily directionless Palestinian violence.  

Thursday's despicable murder of the Henkin couple shows how the organizations have in fact already begun taking over the "spontaneous" uprising.

The Henkin family car. Oct. 1, 2015. (Hatzalah)

Yes, obviously, there are brainless sometimes unconscionable actions Jews have taken to add fuel to an explosive situation…ostentatious visits to the Temple Mount have undoubtedly fed into Arab fantasies and conspiratorial thinking. 

Truth be told, there are plenty of nut-case Templars itching to force the hand of God and thus giving a shred of credence to ranting Arab imams. The idea of uniting millions of Muslims at a time when they are fragmented doesn't bother the apocalyptic Templars because they (and only they) know God's will.

There is also the widely assumed culpability of Jews in the Duma attack which has understandably provoked Arab passions. Sadly, we know that Jews are capable of vile behavior. We know that most recently from the kidnapping and murder of Mohammed Abu Khdeir in 2014.

That said, whatever our stupidities, hubris, and outright crimes, the overall picture would be more or less the same. Because our "original sin" is just being here.

In a Long War the mission is survival. The mission must define our strategy. And we need winning tactics day in and day out. 

So, for example, you don't repeatedly raise enemy morale. The current and previous prime ministers have released enemy prisoners with blood on their hands many of whom return to their old lifestyles. We've done so to "help Abu Mazen" to bring Gilad Shalit home or to retrieve the corpses of fallen IDF soldiers.

This sends a signal that we are weak, indecisive, soft. That time is on the enemy's side.

Of course, this is just one example of failed tactics.

What to expect.

First, the Obama administration will offer a new "peace plan" – encouraged by the Saudis and the Europeans. Like all previous plans since 1967 this one will be aimed at pushing us back to the 1949 Armistice Lines (more or less). For the Saudis, Abbas, and moderate Arabs that's a good beginning in the phased destruction of Israel.

Secondly, we will be told that we have "a right to defend ourselves" – at the theoretical level. Just don't try to exercise that right in practice. Therefore, utilitarian, clever, and effective actions we take to enhance our security – especially in Judea and Samaria and metropolitan Jerusalem – will be condemned as disproportionate, labelled collective punishment, Apartheid, and a war crime. 

Thirdly, our leaders will continue to bicker. Don't expect a national unity government. Not only is there no loyal opposition (Herzog and Lapid and Leiberman) but there is no loyal coalition (Bennett and Shaked and Ariel).

Fourth, we will remain rudderless at the top. We have a smooth-talking Wizard who manages on good days to keep most of the balls in the air… maybe, given the dysfunctional political system he helps to perpetuate, that's about as much as we can expect. 

Around us...

On any given day in the greater Middle East, Muslims slaughter Muslims by the tens and by the hundreds. They bomb each other's mosques and shrines. The intra-Arab and intra-Muslim butchery in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, North Africa, Sudan, and Yemen – will never draw as much action from the UN and EU as, say, Israel temporarily closing a single road to Arab traffic to stop drive-by shootings.

We will hear that if only there were no "settlers" or "settlements" the entire Middle East would be bucolic – with Sunni lying down with Shiite, lambs with lions, Persians with Turks, Alawites with Salafis and Kurds with Arabs. 

And Muslims would practice war no more. 

If only the Jews, ahem, "settlers" would go away.