I suspected something
was up when Lisa and I did our "stroll poll" and came upon neighbors
and friends who told us that they'd voted for Yair Lapid.
Earlier, my father-in-law, voting for the
first time in Israel and after weeks of thoughtful reflection, told us he'd be
voting for Lapid.
Was this a trend in the
making?
Turns out the answer was
yes.
So here are some basic
talking points the morning after.
Big Picture
PM Netanyahu emerges
weakened but still Israel's next PM
-
Likud + YB held 42 seats together; now they'll be down
to 31. And they've already said they are not going to stay a unified faction.
-
It was an unhappy merger.
-
Keep in mind the Likud Party does not reflect not Bibi
(he's more centrist, the party "members" less so)
Centrist party Yesh Atid,
new player, emerges.
PM and Yair Lapid and Naftali
Bennett want “broadest coalition possible.”
Centrist electorate
didn't disappear – as Amotz Asa El says, it simply found new home(s)
Israelis are asking for
a moderate governing coalition in voting for Yesh Atid and Labor lite
There has been no
political re-alignment. No Right-Left shift. The blocs are technically tied.
Remember
"right" and "left" don't mean the same things in Israel as
in the US. Shas is "right"
theologically, "left" economically and, basically, dovish on security.
We the electorate chose
from a losuy menu
So here are the 8AM Jerusalem
numbers (without soldiers & prisoners etc.)
NB Israel does not have winner take all system.
The only losers are those who don't cross the electoral threshold – no party
has ever ruled alone --- coalition building is next stage – see "what next"
below….
Likud-Beytenu 31 [Shalom and Feiglin –most prominent Likud talking heads]
[People want-- though don't trust –Bibi, but they neither trust nor want his
party]
Yesh Atid: 19
Labor: 15 [lost by pledging not to participate in coalition/dumb] [Labor
lite—de-emphasized foreign policy/smart]
NRP /Habayit: 11 (NB captured NRP from old guard] [a return to the Old NRP
influence with new NRP values]
Shas: 11 [lost to two Sephardic schismatic parties that didn't cross threshold]
[Deri return a bust]
UTJ: 7
Meretz: 6 [picked up from less leftist Labor]
Livni: 6 [the Area 51 vote]
Mofaz: 2
Arabs: 12
The stats in Hebrew as
of 8 AM
|
הליכוד - ישראל ביתנו
|
מחל
|
23.25%
|
832,099
|
|
יש עתיד
|
פה
|
14.19%
|
507,879
|
|
העבודה
|
אמת
|
11.45%
|
409,685
|
|
ש"ס
|
שס
|
8.83%
|
316,151
|
|
הבית היהודי
|
טב
|
8.76%
|
313,646
|
|
יהדות התורה
|
ג
|
5.31%
|
189,931
|
|
התנועה
|
צפ
|
5.02%
|
179,818
|
|
מרצ
|
מרץ
|
4.59%
|
164,150
|
|
הרשימה הערבית המאוחדת
|
עם
|
3.80%
|
135,830
|
|
חד"ש
|
ו
|
3.12%
|
111,685
|
|
בל"ד
|
ד
|
2.66%
|
95,312
|
|
קדימה
|
כן
|
2.09%
|
74,735
|
|
עוצמה לישראל
|
נץ
|
1.73%
|
61,825
|
|
עם שלם
|
ץ
|
1.20%
|
43,095
|
|
ע
|
Who is Lapid?
Telegenic celebrity;
columnist; son of Tommy; Middle Class Israel; Tel Aviv Icon
“What is good for Israel
is not in the possession of the right, and nor is it in the possession of the
left. It lies in the possibility of creating here a real and decent center.”
--anti-Haredi
--pro-business
--pragmatic on security
--quintessential middle
class
--Yair Lapid called on
senior members of the political establishment to do everything in their power
to form a government that is as broad as possible in order to face the
challenges before Israel.
-- Said Israel was
facing an economic crisis that threatened to shatter the middle class, mounting
international criticism, and security threats.
--Acknowledged the
weight of the responsibility he was now shouldering, and recalled the similar
situation faced by his father, Yosef Lapid when the latter was leader of the
Shinui party
Who is Shelli
Yachimovich? (Labor)
-- Convinced that the
election results amount to a resounding vote of no-confidence in Binyamin
Netanyahu,
-- Labor would serve as
a fighting opposition and would work to topple the government soon
What did Bennett say
last night?
-- his party had
returned to the center of the political map,
-- Israel had “returned
to itself.”
-- new home for those in
search of a proud, non-servile Zionism
Is there a consensus
on FP?
All major Zionist
parties – Likud, Yesh Atid & Labor skeptical of the Palestinian
leadership’s willingness to negotiate
What Bibi Got Wrong
Tone: on FP
Columnist Ari Shavit, a for
the hard-Left newspaper Haaretz: “This was a lesson in how not to run a
campaign.”
Better to ask what he
got right—not much.
The Real agenda…
--domestic: economy; Haredim; oligarchic capitalism
-- $10 billion budget
deficit
--Iranian nuclear
program
--upheaval in Arab world
security threat to Israel
-- unknown unknowns
(revolution in Jordan); war with Egypt; reassessment with US and Europe etc etc
Turnout
Turnout was nearly 67
percent, higher than the 65 percent in 2009
3,616,947
What next?
Build a coalition…
Likud + Yesh Atid ==
obvious
>>> next pieces
of the block far more problematic
+add NRP
+add Labor? -- ideal for pragmatist/though unlikely
+add Haredim – recipe
for paralysis
+NB Haredim and settlers
have differences
oi vey
Wildcard (science
fiction)
Peres asks Lapid to form
government – he turns to Labor, Likud (Likud fragments) Kadima and Livni –
highly unlikely scenario -- could pull together 48 seats plus 15 Likud
moderates led by Bib --
How'd the polls do?
aggregate of early polls
gave Likud /Lieberman 42-- closing polls 34
Labor 20:17
NRP12: 13
truth is major polls
weren't that far off (even predicted Kadima with 2; Meretz with 6; livni with 7
Media Reaction
Yediot Aharonot:
* A Blow for Netanyahu,
A Surge for Lapid
* The Father of the
Failure
* A Vote of No-Confidence
Ma’ariv:
* The Right Wing
Weakens; A Blow for Netanyahu; the Big Winner Is Yair Lapid
* Protest Vote
* Forget About A
“Blocking Majority”
Haaretz:
* Spectacular
Achievement for Yair Lapid; Disenchantment in Likud
* Netanyahu Has a Future
* Why Netanyahu Failed
Makor Rishon
* 2013 Elections:
Setback for Likud Beiteinu; Major Accomplishment for Lapid
* The message: Social
Agenda
* Netanyahu Lost Because
of Fear
Israel Hayom
* Surprise for Lapid.
Disappointment for Netanyahu
* Possibility for
Stability
* The Lessons of the
Elections
Stay tuned.
In Israel elections
aren't over the morning after the election but the morning after a coalition
deal is signed between the various parties….
