Jerusalem
-Wednesday, afternoon August 6, 2014
According
to political apocrypha, in 1972 President Richard Nixon asked China's number
two leader Chou En Lai to assess the French Revolution which ended in 1799.
"It's
too soon to tell."
But in
the blogging world snap judgments – gut reactions – are expected.
IDF reservists are on the way home to their families. Thank God.
The Alpha and Omega is this: Gaza is
part of The Long War which the Arabs launched against the Zionist enterprise, arguably in 1929.
Understand
all that follows in that light.
###
The
headlines talk about a return to normalcy. But of course, given the part of the
world we live in "normalcy" could unravel in milliseconds.
It
looks like the ceasefire will hold.
Hamas,
however, is threatening to resume attacks on Friday morning.
So, it
is too early to tell.
###
I hear
say that the war was a "failure" because the enemy was able to keep
shooting until the very end and that our army did not manage to kill the enemy
leaders.
Hamas
even partially closed Ben-Gurion airport. Well, actually, that was the Federal
Aviation Administration. And that was a taste of what will happen if ever,
heaven forbid, the "two state solution" kicks in and the PLO sits
astride the mountains of Samaria opposite the airport. But, that's a separate
matter.
Back to
Gaza. The most cost-effective way to stop a military threat is with deterrence.
Israel is surrounded by enemies. All of them have rockets. Some have missiles.
One is working on a nuclear weapons capability.
We will
know in the fullness of time whether Israel restored its military deterrence
vis-à-vis Hamas-controlled Gaza.
I hope
so.
###
But I
also regret that we did not manage to liquidate very many enemy leaders,
particularly Mohammed Deif.
I would
say that he is anyway a walking dead man -- but because of previous
assassination attempts that would uncouth. His time will come. Ins'allah.
Experience
shows that killing the enemy leadership while delivering justice and
retribution – legitimate ends in and of themselves – as a military value has a short
shelf-life span.
It was
good that we liquidated Abdel Aziz Rantisi. It was even better that we
neutralized Ahmed Yassin (who founded Hamas). It was welcome that we sent Yahya
Ayyash to hell.
But
liquidating such evil men offers no magic bullet.
And it vastly
complicates the schedule of that haggard 72-year-old virgin promised to all the
shahids.
Killing
the enemy leaders during a battle disrupts their command and control and would
have been particularly valuable.
Alas.
We
didn't manage to get, as far as I know, any key Izz ad-Din al-Kassam leaders (but,
here too, too early to tell) or any in the so-called political leadership of
Hamas like Mahmoud al-Zahar or Ismail Haniyeh.
A
couple of top Islamic Jihad characters did come down with fatal lead poisoning.
Meanwhile,
the outside Hamas leaders and much of the "religious guidance
council" probably don't sleep too easy.
There
are complaints the job is unfinished.
Since
when does Israel have the luxury to finish the job?
And by
the way, when was the last time the U.S.
won a war? Russia? Britain? I think we're talking 1945.
###
If
Hamas had been suicidal and continued to shoot – there would have been no
choice but to re-conquer the Strip. No one really knows how long that would
take – everyone agrees it would be a long, drawnout and bloody business.
And
then what? Not clear.
I am
not keen on "helping Abu Mazen" by handing him Gaza (like he could
digest it).
I hear
the Egyptians are thinking in terms of Mohammed Dahlan for Gaza. The old
crackdown artist.
Anyway,
I know the mantra "helping Palestinian moderates" is supposedly our
only recourse. Problem is I think all true "Palestinian moderates"
are pushing up daises -- and Fatah is by no means a genuine moderate movement.
###
For
now, the army is entirely out of Gaza. So we sit tight and see how it all plays
out.
Plainly,
if it begins to drizzle rockets and we don't act, disproportionately, to
re-establish deterrence, then we'll have only ourselves to blame for the
consequences.
How do
you know when you've restored deterrence?
When the enemy does not shoot.
We
always say we won't let the situation get out of hand and we always let the
situation get out of hand. I guess that's human nature.
People
are saying how we handled the tunnel business – not dealing with it sooner – was
a failure. I am not sure any army could
have done better.
Gilad
Shalit got taken (and Hanan Barak and Pavel Slutzker were killed) by Hamas tunnel
guerillas.
What
did PM Benjamin Netanyahu do? He released 1,000 terrorists. That emboldened the
enemy in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria -- but don't get me started.
###
People
say we should have acted sooner on the tunnels.
Well,
there are undoubtedly tunnels from Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon into northern Israel.
And I don't know too many reasonable people who want to do anything offensive
about it at this point.
###
It will
take time for the fog of war to lift.
We lost
64 soldiers and four civilians. The air force flew 4,762 sorties.
The IDF
called up 80,000 reservists – men and women.
The
true extent of Palestinian casualties we do not know
.
We guesstimate
about 1,000 gunmen killed. But there were also among enemy non-combatants
perhaps 429 children killed.
We
cannot cherish Palestinian children more than their own leaders – still it is
tragic that they forced us to kill them in the process of defending ourselves.
It
sullies us. But what choice was there?
Gold
Meir was right when she said that it was unforgivable that the Arabs made us
kill their children.
###
It will
take a while to discover the rules of the game going forward.
We are
fortunate that Egypt is presently at odds with Hamas. President Abdul Sisi,
too, sees his interest in "helping Abu Mazen" not the Palestinian
Muslim Brotherhood.
Cairo
will presumably keep the tunnels between Sinai and Gaza sealed and not permit
weapons to flow in either direction. Let's hope Sisi hangs on and maintains
this policy.
What
will Israel demand of Gaza? Will we be able to resist the so-called
international community in order to protect our elementary security interests.
Netanyahu
will need to be prudent in what we ask for and steadfast in his resolve.
Hamas
needs to be defanged and disarmed.
Time
will tell.
It's
hard to be optimistic given that Barack Obama and John Kerry are looking after
our interests with an assist from David Cameron and Francois Hollande.
All
agree Israel has the right to passive self-defense.
Meantime,
a depraved United Nations, an Orwellian UN Human Rights Council, and the twisted
enablers of Palestinian victimization at UNRWA – prepare for a their kangaroo
court that manipulates international law into lawfare holding Jews to a double
standard.
###
During
the war Israel moved 2,000 trucks of food and supplies for the enemy non
combatants. Until the war, Israel also supplied fuel and electricity. We set up
a field hospital just outside the gates of Gaza.
If you
are going to have enemies, pray your enemy is a Jew.
According
to a Haaretz poll, 53 percent of Israelis also think "helping Abu
Mazen" should be our goal.
Obviously,
a political solution is preferable. It is just not in the cards given enemy intentions.
What
can I say: countries are not the only ones who want the illusion of momentum. People
like that too. And when that is the uniform message Israelis get – can you
blame them for falling for it?
Some 56
percent say that the IDF achieved at least a partial victory – with that, at
least, I agree.
PM
Benjamin Netanyahu comes out of the war with a 44 percent approval rating. DF
Moshe Ya'alon with 43 percent and the IDF chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz comes
out best with 53 percent.
As much
as I don't care for Netanyahu due to his chronic lack of character, I would
give him better marks for his handling of the war.
Especially
because he also had to contend with a demagogic foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who
behaved appallingly and a smart-alecky Jewish Home Party leader Naftali Bennett, who said
one thing behind closed doors (reportedly) and another to the TV cameras. In
fact, he had no friends around the cabinet table.
He's
not a guy who generates a lot of loyalty from the people he works with our who
work for him. But, that too, is another story.
###
Some final
snap judgments.
The
country really pulled together. Basically. The Zionist opposition was mostly
responsible and supportive of the war effort. I think former Labor leader
Shelly Yacomovitch and the current leader Isaac Herzog did good work.
The Disloyal
Knesset Opposition did its best for Hamas. No surprise there.
Meanwhile,
Jerusalem-area Palestinians rioted regularly, unhelpfully, counter-productively.
A few used knives, tractors, and guns to kill Jews – answering the Hams call to
start a third intifada.
Fatah
(which benefits most because the IDF weakened Hamas) will now use every trick
in the lawfare book to besmirch Israel and agitate, instigate, and mobilize
against Israel.
Naturally,
Abbas himself would not last 48 hours without Israel watching his back. But –
that's another story.
And while
Fatah/the Palestinian Authority/ State of Palestine/PLO –whatever you want to
call it is undermining Israel, a long line of Israelis -- Herzog is just the most obviously gormless -- will be
banging the "help Abu Mazin" drum.
I don't
get it.
The
Agents of Foreign Influence – groups like B'Tselem and ACCRI did what we would
expect of them: and what their paymasters at the EU and in the US and the
various foundations (some of them, sigh, Jewish) wanted them to: undermine the
war effort and weaken moral.
They
were pretty ineffectual.
I saw
that Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times had a little kvetch that B'Tselem
couldn't buy radio time during the war to damage Israeli morale.
Well,
as far as I know, no one has sold anyone radio time in Washington or London to
read the names of enemy non-combatants killed by U.S. or British forces.
Nu,
Rudoren is disappointed. She came to Jerusalem disappointed with the Zionists
and she will leave disappointed with the bad "right-wing" Zionists. She
says the whole bloody country is "right-wing" meaning it's nothing
like the neighborhood around Zabar's. So many disappointed Jews at the Times.
Uncle Tom. Uncle Roger. Bummer.
###
The war
should humble us.
Israeli
intelligence does not know everything. Let's remember that. We don't know where
all the tunnels are. We don't know where the Hamas leaders hide…
Let's
remember that's true, too, in connection with our greatest enemy Iran.
Speaking
of intelligence, I have a hunch where the bad guys were hiding. Last time I
looked, Qatar had a consulate in Gaza. Not sure if Turkey has diplomats
stationed in the Strip. I'd bet the enemy command and control was in a bunker
underneath a diplomatic mission and not under Shifa hospital.
Just
saying.
###
People
will rightly complain that some of our soldiers went into Gaza on armored personnel jalopies – terrible.
That needs to be investigated. It needs to be fixed.
###
Some
705 foreign journalists were sent to Israel to cover the war.
I
didn't watch much foreign media during this war. Firstly, there was little time
and secondly, I know where they stand on Israel.
What
little I did see and read reinforced this view.
People
latched on to a single friendly essay in The Independent (noch) or in the Times
(of London).
The
Arabs accused the BBC of a pro-Zionist slant. No, I mean it.
The
Western press (writ large) does not "get" the war of civilizations or
that Israel is engaed in a Long War. It just doesn't and everything else
follows from that.
The
idea of a zero sum conflict strikes liberals and cosmopolitans and many
millennials as archaic.
On the
Israeli media, I'd say that I found Channel 2 (intermittently) the least bad.
No one beats Ehud Ya'ari for reading the Arab mind or the jingoistic Ronny
Daniel for making me feel like I'm a dove. And I also liked to have my
convictions tested by Amnon Abramovich.
Yonit
Levi did an outstanding job of being Yonit Levi and that’s all I'll say.
Otherwise,
Israelis benefitted from some hardworking field reporters and producers and
cameramen who deserve our appreciation.
On
radio, heroic Carmella Ben Meneshe lost her voice but did a yeoman's job.
Channel
10 tended to be defeatist – but only intermittently. And I can't help that I
enjoy Rafi Reshef. Channel 1 did its
best but with a small budget it was at a decided disadvantage.
Yediot
Aharanot and Maariv stayed populist and shallow – like we would expect.
Haaretz
wasn't terrible – not all the time – given that it straddles the
post-Zionist/anti-Zionist/ quasi Zionist line.
Mekor
Rishon was good. Israel Hayom was superb in rallying the nation. Thank you
Sheldon Adelson. Seriously.
The
haredi papers I saw were also supportive of the war effort.
###
I
suppose I should wrap up with a word about the Obama administration.
My
regulars know that I have argued all U.S. administrations have let Israel down
when the going got tough. I've elsewhere given the litany to prove this point. All
administrations rightly pursue U.S. interests not Israeli interests.
And
anyway, why should Barack Obama treat Israel with any less disdain, arrogance,
and meanness than he treats the U.S. Congress?
Would
Mitt Romney have been better? History says no.
But I'm
wavering. I'm wavering. Obama really is different.
The
worst president for Israel? Too early to tell.