7:46AMחשד לפיגוע בירושלים: דיווח ראשוני על ירי בכניסה לשכונת רמות
Analysts on Army Radio say worth checking if the release of prisoners and a sense Palestinian victory was the impetus for attackat the entrance pf Jerusalem
8:23 AM מגן דוד אדום @mda_israel בהמשך לפיגוע ירי בשדרות וייצמן בטרמפיאדה בכניסה לירושלים: חובשים ופראמדיקים של מד"א קובעים את מותה של צעירה בת 24 ומפנים לבתי החולים שערי צדק והדסה עין כרם 8 פצועים, בהם: 5 במצב קשה, 1 בינוני ו-2 קל.
The war that
began on Black Saturday, October 7, 2023, ended in Israel's defeat on Black Friday,
November 24, 2023. It will be seen as Israel's first defeat in a war of "no
choice."
The extent of our
loss will become apparent over time. In the Islamic world, the Arab, Persian,
and Turkish perception will be that the Jewish state is brittle and vulnerable.
"Dazed and crazed, Israel lashed out, killed thousands of babies, women,
and children, left Gaza in ruins, yet in the end, failed to overcome the steadfast
Palestinian resistance," the enemy narrative will say.
How did we lose?
We abandoned our stated mission of removing Hamas as a military threat. Destroying
Hamas was supplanted by "freeing the captives" that Hamas and other
Palestinian criminal gangs took on day one of the war. Mission creep became
mission lost.
The needs of the
few overcame the safety and, ultimately, I fear, the existence of the many.
Once Binyamin
Netanyahu made the decision (early in the war) to negotiate with Hamas about
the captives via the US and Qatar, defeat was foretold. The Persians and Arabs
have always seen through his bluster. It did not help that interested players
got involved to "advise" and "champion" the captives'
families. The intense public relations that came out of nowhere and made the
hostages the focus of the war had – unintended or not – the consequence of
saving Hamas's ability to fight another day.
The issue of the
captives obfuscated the goal of the war. And then it derailed it.
Israel's leading
media outlets encouraged the mission creep so that the return of the captives became
the first imperative. Most of the population drank the cool-aid. Getting our
hostages home trumped everything. I see this as a self-destruct gene in Israel's DNA.
The Jews are
supposed to be shrewd bargainers. Maybe with each other. Not so in the
Arab-Israel conflict. I refer you to Yitzhak Rabin's Oslo Accords and Netanyahu's
fulfillment of Oslo II.
In this instance, the price will go steadily higher for each successive release of Israeli captives. The IDF's offensive will stand indefinitely paused. Gazans' humanitarian needs will become paramount. Our army's presence in the Strip will, in due course, become militarily and diplomatically less than useless. The enthusiasm of the reservists will drop. The Arabs will shoot occasionally to demoralize us, but not enough to torpedo the process. And at each stage, Israel will be forced to set loose more and more of the most dangerous terrorists from our prisons. A mass prisoner release was what Hamas has been demanding all along. The Islamists did not lose sight of their mission. Yahya Sinwar, who got his current job in Gaza thanks to Netanyahu, knew he could count on our PM to repeat the Schalit deal blunder.
Ours will be a
two-front defeat as Hezbollah has managed to drive thousands of Israelis away
from their homes in the North, and Hamas has made life in the South untenable.
Netanyahu's implied
contract with Israel's citizens is that despite changing missions, mid-war, he can get all the civilian
and IDF captives – alive or their remains – brought back to Israel, then resume our offensive against Hamas, ending its military capability to threaten our security. After that, Mossad will
hunt down and liquidate the entire Hamas leadership abroad (which granted might
take some time). Finally, the released sociopathic killers will be expected to sign lawyerly affidavits pledging not to engage in terrorism. I can't see how he can pull this scenario off, but I would be thrilled
to be proven wrong.
However, if my realism turns out to be closer to the truth than Netanyahu's Rosy Scenario, he will spin our horrific reverses as the fault of the "leftist" IDF high command and the bad advice he got from the Shin Bet and Mossad - not to mention pressure from the Biden administration. He will say those who protested against his regime change putsch were a fifth column that undermined our deterrence. And he will assert that, thank heavens, he was nonetheless able to pull our chestnuts out of the fire.
His wizardry is not what it was, but Israel is full
of gullible people.
