Does Kadima Have a Future?

As these words are being written, Ariel Sharon lies in a coma in the intensive care unit of Hadassah Hospital, Ein Kerem. The prognosis isn’t known, yet it’s obvious he won’t be returning to the Prime Minister’s Office. His career is finished. Still, the party he founded at the end of November remains not only politically viable but essential to Israel’s political well-being.

Kadima already has an iconic founder, a working party platform, an organizational director (Avigdor Yitzhaki), a plethora of talented politicians and, most importantly, an overarching mission that goes beyond Sharon the man. That mission is to give Israelis a choice between Amir Peretz and Binyamin Netanyahu.

Peretz and those to his left remain convinced that there is a Palestinian negotiating partner, and continue to embrace the ghost of Oslo. Netanyahu, and those to his right, oppose unilateralism and claim to want “a better deal” from the Palestinians. Some desire no deal at all. They are comfortable with the status quo.

That is why Kadima’s centrist alternative is no less imperative today than it was when Sharon first broke away from the Likud. Kadima’s pragmatism was articulated by Justice Minister Tzipi Livni on November 29, when she summarized the new party’s political platform:

“The Jewish people have a national and historic right to the Land of Israel; but to maintain a Jewish majority in a Jewish democratic state we have to concede parts of the Land of Israel....”
Thus while Kadima understands the inevitability of a Palestinian Arab state, it certainly does not relish the prospect. It accepts the internationally-brokered road map diplomatic plan – with the explicit proviso that the Palestinians first fulfill their obligations: dismantling the terrorist groups and ending violence and incitement. Kadima calls for maintaining the major settlement blocs, and supports an undivided Jerusalem (a fairly meaningless mantra, I admit).

I’m not suggesting that Kadima’s platform could not be improved. For instance, a truly centrist party would favor a civil marriage option as well as support for non-Orthodox conversions.


BUT I’M not deluding myself. Kadima could easily fizzle out, just like Yigal Yadin’s Democratic Movement for Change, Yitzhak Mordechai’s Center Party, and now Tommy Lapid’s Shinui.
For that not to happen, Ehud Olmert, Meir Sheetrit, Tzipi Livni and Avi Dichter, in consultation with other Kadima politicians, will have to make some tough decisions, quickly. Kadima needs not only to replace Sharon but also to display the esprit de corps and unity so abysmally lacking in Likud and Labor.

My own preference is for the 60-year-old Olmert. And I say this despite the fact that as mayor of Jerusalem he neither had my garbage collected as often as I would have liked nor used municipal taxes efficiently.

Olmert is the most seasoned and polished politician in Kadima’s ranks, having been mayor of Israel’s largest city (1993-2003), a Knesset member, a minister and, previously, a successful attorney. He has excellent English, already knows the key players in Washington, London, Brussels and Berlin, and has the added advantage of being Acting Prime Minister.

He was out front on the need for unilateral disengagement even before the idea captured the support of most Israelis. He was the first to join Kadmia after Sharon established it. And he’s cunning enough to follow in Sharon’s tactical footsteps. He has an excellent political and familial pedigree in the Jabotinsky movement. He was a member of Betar.

All this tells me he’s capable of striking the right balance between ideological principle and realpolitik.

Is Olmert a squeaky-clean politician? Let’s not kid ourselves. But, like many Israelis, I’d rather have a shrewd, slightly shady character at the helm of the state than a knave or charlatan.

PLATFORM OR no platform, the ethos of Kadima is clear to savvy Israelis. I refer you to the interview published on October 11, 2004 between Sharon’s consigliere Dov Weissglass and Haaretz’s Avi Shavit.

Here is the lawyer encapsulating the thinking of his foremost client: “Because of his trenchant realism, Arik never believed in permanent settlements: He didn’t believe in the one-fell-swoop approach. Sharon doesn’t think that after a conflict of 104 years it’s possible to come up with a piece of paper that will end the matter.

“...Very quickly we discovered that we were up against a [Palestinian] stone wall, that when you get to the decision-making center, nothing happens.”

So what unilateralism does, Weissglass explained, is to “make it possible for Israel to park conveniently in an interim situation that distances us as far as possible from political pressure. It legitimizes our contention that there is no negotiating with the Palestinians.”
And so it has been.

The months ahead will not be easy ones. There is the need to deal with the Iranian threat – while emphasizing that this is a problem for the West and not just for Israel. Construction of the security barrier must be accelerated. Ground must be broken on the E1 project to connect Jerusalem to Ma’aleh Adumin – an area where Sharon has dragged his heels.
The next premier must devote himself to defining and solidifying the Israeli consensus, not just on security issues but on a range of domestic priorities to make this society a more equitable and cohesive one.

Kadima can yet make history by reflecting a 21st-century political realignment of the Israeli body politic – one that gives expression to the country’s pragmatic mainstream. But it can only do so if its luminaries are able to summon up the altruism to postpone gratification and put the nation first.

PLAIN TALK: Jack Abramoff & Ariel Sharon

Last night while I was still at work, Channel 10’s Baruch Kra (who once worked for Haaretz) broke a story he’s been following for year’s that’s again captured the headlines here.

Kra reported that police have evidence that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon took a $3 million bribe from Austrian businessman James Schlaff. It’s all tied to the Cyril Kern affair, violations of campaign finance limits, and Jericho Casinos... but don’t ask me precisely how it all ties together.

Everyone else in the media is now playing catch-up with Channel 10’s scoop.

As for the cops – they’re keeping shtum.

My hunch is that all things being equal (Sharon goes into the hospital tomorrow), this latest revelation will blow over and have minimal impact on Sharon’s anticipated margin of victory.

Yossi Verter in Haaretz gave spinmesiter Arthur Finkelstein the final word: “The public prefers a corrupt man to an idiot.”

Or several different idiots.

So my attention is drawn to real news and it comes from overseas.

I’m thinking about the tragedy of the miners in West Virginia and the pain of their families; about how their loves ones had been celebrating the “miracle” of their rescue only to have their gratitude turned into anguish when it emerged only one of the 12 trapped men had survived.

That’s real news – not the manufactured nonsense that fills so many of our newspapers and media outlets.

Elsewhere, I’m drawn to the reports of an extraordinary Chillul Hashem, what we Jews call – a desecration of God’s name – committed by an Orthodox Jew named Jay Ambramof.

He’s the Washington lobbyist who pleaded guilty to three felony counts in connection with Washington influence peddling.

Yet I wonder if it is news that people who think of themselves as pious observant Jews would nevertheless conspire to commit fraud, evade taxes use power unrestrained by ethical concerns.

No. The real news today is not Sharon and not Ambramof.

It’s the pain of the families who lost their loved ones in the mines of West Virginia. That’s what is real and enduring.

God give them strength to handle their pain and loss.

PLAIN TALK: Organized Crime in Israel

Even though I’m a news junkie, I find it hard to watch or read about organized crime in Israel.

It just disgusts me.

Back in New York, all the Jews I knew – and the Italians for that matter – either had, or aspired to, bourgeois middle class values.

Living in Israel, I’ve had to adjust (with difficulty) to the fact that some Jews are violent thugs with no redeeming values.

I was thinking about my aversion to news about organized on the way to work this morning.

What drew my attention was the Monday afternoon melee in the lobby of a Herzliya luxury hotel during a gathering of some of the Jewish State’s top hoodlums. You know, people who oversee the sale of illegal drugs, enslave women into prostitution and shake-down mom and pop businesses.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that organized crime has penetrated the police and government of the country.

It’s something I don’t want to dwell on too much.

Because if I did, I’d add that to the list of why life in Israel sometimes disappoints – why it sometimes shatters illusions about “us” all being in this together.

PLAIN TALK: Palestinian elections postponed?

So, are they on, or are they off?

It’s looking like the Palestinian parliamentary elections, scheduled for January 25, will be postponed.

Palestinian Arab politicians must be breathing a sigh of relief.

Most Israelis aren’t much bothered.

PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has been looking for a pretext to delay – what everyone expects to be – Fatah’s day of reckoning.

Abbas now says that Israel’s refusal to commit to allowing Arab residents of Jerusalem to vote by mail from Jerusalem-area post-offices is leading him to delay the elections.

Israel has been sending conflicting signals. Still, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon hasn’t explicitly announced that Israel would NOT facilitate the vote-by-mail system that has been previously used.

And I wonder if this Israeli ambiguity isn’t intended “help” Abbas.

The theory is what’s good for Hamas is bad – not just for Fatah – but for Israel and the West.

The inept Abbas been under pressure to postpone the elections – from various Palestinian quarters.

His own Fatah group is bitterly divided. Even the old guard (which came here from Tunis after the Oslo Accords in 1993) itself is fragmented with old Abu Ala off sulking.

And the young guard, led by Marwan Barghouti, Mohammed Dahlan and Jabril Rajub want to shove their way to the head of the syndicate's table.

For reasons I don’t really understand, Israel seems to be facilitating Barghouti’s involvement in the campaign. He’s sitting in an Israeli prison, convicted of multiple counts of murder, yet somehow manages to exert immense day-to-day influence.

With the Territories in turmoil and not much to show for the millions of EU and US dollars that have flowed into PA coffers, the ruling Fatah “party” feels it is in no position to face the “clean government” types from the Islamist movement Hamas.

Now it looks like Abbas has reached some kind of deal with Hamas which had been claiming all along that it opposed postponing the elections.

Maybe Hamas recognizes that the almost complete breakdown of law and order throughout the PA areas could delegitimize their predicted electoral gains.

What's the point of winning – especially if you can anyway win fair and square – in the midst of a riot?

Personally, I don’t care when the Palestinians hold their elections.

Their vote won’t contribute to a tolerant polity or moderate, representative government.

At the same time, I’m not convinced that a Hamas win would be such a bad thing.

Given that the war is destined to continue, because regardless of who wins, there really is no Palestinian partner, I'd rather do business with Hamas thugs who can at least deliver on a promise than ineffectual old terrorist in suits, or their corrupt, duplicitous younger guard.

PLAIN TALK: TRUSTEESHIP FOR ‘PALESTINE’

Today’s “news” that anarchy reigns inside the PA areas, combined with a previously embargoed report (see Chronology at LEFT) that a crude Kassam rocket was launched into Israel from northern Samaria, only reinforces the reality that the Palestinian polity is not ready for statehood.

Mahmoud Abbas has ignored repeated calls from Israel to honor his road map commitments and dismantle the infrastructure of terror.

Now it becomes clear that his refusal to do so hasn't just been bad for Israel, but also for the Palestinian Arabs themselves.

Kidnappings, armed gangs, illegal roadblocks, rampant violence, and attacks against PA institutions, are now part of the daily scene.

All this just weeks before scheduled Palestinian parliamentary elections.

Isn’t now the time for the EU and the US to take up an idea first broached by Martin Indyk -- that what is needed is a “trusteeship for Palestine.”

Palestinian society plainly needs a stage between today’s state-of-nature chaos and (presumably) desired statehood.

Such a stage would allow for a level of political socialization necessary before independence could be viable.

But are the EU and the US ready to acknowledge this need?

How would it be implemented?

What would the security implications for Israel be?

Let the discussion begin....