It's a Wrap – the 2014 Gaza War

Jerusalem -Wednesday, afternoon August 6, 2014

According to political apocrypha, in 1972 President Richard Nixon asked China's number two leader Chou En Lai to assess the French Revolution which ended in 1799.

"It's too soon to tell."

But in the blogging world snap judgments – gut reactions – are expected.

IDF reservists are on the way home to their families. Thank God.

The Alpha and Omega is this: Gaza is part of The Long War which the Arabs launched against the Zionist enterprise, arguably in 1929.

Understand all that follows in that light.

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The headlines talk about a return to normalcy. But of course, given the part of the world we live in "normalcy" could unravel in milliseconds.

It looks like the ceasefire will hold.

Hamas, however, is threatening to resume attacks on Friday morning.

So, it is too early to tell.

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I hear say that the war was a "failure" because the enemy was able to keep shooting until the very end and that our army did not manage to kill the enemy leaders.

Hamas even partially closed Ben-Gurion airport. Well, actually, that was the Federal Aviation Administration. And that was a taste of what will happen if ever, heaven forbid, the "two state solution" kicks in and the PLO sits astride the mountains of Samaria opposite the airport. But, that's a separate matter.

Back to Gaza. The most cost-effective way to stop a military threat is with deterrence. Israel is surrounded by enemies. All of them have rockets. Some have missiles. One is working on a nuclear weapons capability.

We will know in the fullness of time whether Israel restored its military deterrence vis-à-vis Hamas-controlled Gaza.

I hope so.

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But I also regret that we did not manage to liquidate very many enemy leaders, particularly Mohammed Deif.

I would say that he is anyway a walking dead man -- but because of previous assassination attempts that would uncouth. His time will come. Ins'allah.

Experience shows that killing the enemy leadership while delivering justice and retribution – legitimate ends in and of themselves – as a military value has a short shelf-life span. 

It was good that we liquidated Abdel Aziz Rantisi. It was even better that we neutralized Ahmed Yassin (who founded Hamas). It was welcome that we sent Yahya Ayyash to hell.

But liquidating such evil men offers no magic bullet.  

And it vastly complicates the schedule of that haggard 72-year-old virgin promised to all the shahids.

Killing the enemy leaders during a battle disrupts their command and control and would have been particularly valuable.

Alas.

We didn't manage to get, as far as I know, any key Izz ad-Din al-Kassam leaders (but, here too, too early to tell) or any in the so-called political leadership of Hamas like Mahmoud al-Zahar or Ismail Haniyeh.

A couple of top Islamic Jihad characters did come down with fatal lead poisoning.

Meanwhile, the outside Hamas leaders and much of the "religious guidance council" probably don't sleep too easy.

There are complaints the job is unfinished.

Since when does Israel have the luxury to finish the job?

And by the way, when was the last  time the U.S. won a war? Russia? Britain? I think we're talking 1945.

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If Hamas had been suicidal and continued to shoot – there would have been no choice but to re-conquer the Strip. No one really knows how long that would take – everyone agrees it would be a long, drawnout and bloody business.

And then what?  Not clear.

I am not keen on "helping Abu Mazen" by handing him Gaza (like he could digest it).

I hear the Egyptians are thinking in terms of Mohammed Dahlan for Gaza. The old crackdown artist.

Anyway, I know the mantra "helping Palestinian moderates" is supposedly our only recourse. Problem is I think all true "Palestinian moderates" are pushing up daises -- and Fatah is by no means a genuine moderate movement.

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For now, the army is entirely out of Gaza. So we sit tight and see how it all plays out.

Plainly, if it begins to drizzle rockets and we don't act, disproportionately, to re-establish deterrence, then we'll have only ourselves to blame for the consequences.

How do you know when you've restored deterrence?  When the enemy does not shoot.

We always say we won't let the situation get out of hand and we always let the situation get out of hand. I guess that's human nature.

People are saying how we handled the tunnel business – not dealing with it sooner – was a failure.  I am not sure any army could have done better.

Gilad Shalit got taken (and Hanan Barak and Pavel Slutzker were killed) by Hamas tunnel guerillas.  

What did PM Benjamin Netanyahu do? He released 1,000 terrorists. That emboldened the enemy in Gaza and in Judea and Samaria -- but don't get me started.

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People say we should have acted sooner on the tunnels.

Well, there are undoubtedly tunnels from Hezbollah-occupied Lebanon into northern Israel. And I don't know too many reasonable people who want to do anything offensive about it at this point.

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It will take time for the fog of war to lift.

We lost 64 soldiers and four civilians. The air force flew 4,762 sorties. 

The IDF called up 80,000 reservists – men and women.

The true extent of Palestinian casualties we do not know

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We guesstimate about 1,000 gunmen killed. But there were also among enemy non-combatants perhaps 429 children killed.

We cannot cherish Palestinian children more than their own leaders – still it is tragic that they forced us to kill them in the process of defending ourselves.

It sullies us. But what choice was there?

Gold Meir was right when she said that it was unforgivable that the Arabs made us kill their children.

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It will take a while to discover the rules of the game going forward.

We are fortunate that Egypt is presently at odds with Hamas. President Abdul Sisi, too, sees his interest in "helping Abu Mazen" not the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood.

Cairo will presumably keep the tunnels between Sinai and Gaza sealed and not permit weapons to flow in either direction. Let's hope Sisi hangs on and maintains this policy.

What will Israel demand of Gaza? Will we be able to resist the so-called international community in order to protect our elementary security interests.

Netanyahu will need to be prudent in what we ask for and steadfast in his resolve.

Hamas needs to be defanged and disarmed.

Time will tell.

It's hard to be optimistic given that Barack Obama and John Kerry are looking after our interests with an assist from David Cameron and Francois Hollande.

All agree Israel has the right to passive self-defense. 

Meantime, a depraved United Nations, an Orwellian UN Human Rights Council, and the twisted enablers of Palestinian victimization at UNRWA – prepare for a their kangaroo court that manipulates international law into lawfare holding Jews to a double standard.

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During the war Israel moved 2,000 trucks of food and supplies for the enemy non combatants. Until the war, Israel also supplied fuel and electricity. We set up a field hospital just outside the gates of Gaza.

If you are going to have enemies, pray your enemy is a Jew.

According to a Haaretz poll, 53 percent of Israelis also think "helping Abu Mazen" should be our goal.

Obviously, a political solution is preferable. It is just not in the cards given enemy intentions.

What can I say: countries are not the only ones who want the illusion of momentum. People like that too. And when that is the uniform message Israelis get – can you blame them for falling for it?

Some 56 percent say that the IDF achieved at least a partial victory – with that, at least, I agree.

PM Benjamin Netanyahu comes out of the war with a 44 percent approval rating. DF Moshe Ya'alon with 43 percent and the IDF chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz comes out best with 53 percent.

As much as I don't care for Netanyahu due to his chronic lack of character, I would give him better marks for his handling of the war.

Especially because he also had to contend with a demagogic foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, who behaved appallingly and a smart-alecky Jewish Home Party leader Naftali Bennett, who said one thing behind closed doors (reportedly) and another to the TV cameras. In fact, he had no friends around the cabinet table.

He's not a guy who generates a lot of loyalty from the people he works with our who work for him. But, that too, is another story.

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Some final snap judgments.

The country really pulled together. Basically. The Zionist opposition was mostly responsible and supportive of the war effort. I think former Labor leader Shelly Yacomovitch and the current leader Isaac Herzog did good work.

The Disloyal Knesset Opposition did its best for Hamas. No surprise there.

Meanwhile, Jerusalem-area Palestinians rioted regularly, unhelpfully, counter-productively. A few used knives, tractors, and guns to kill Jews – answering the Hams call to start a third intifada.

Fatah (which benefits most because the IDF weakened Hamas) will now use every trick in the lawfare book to besmirch Israel and agitate, instigate, and mobilize against Israel.

Naturally, Abbas himself would not last 48 hours without Israel watching his back. But – that's another story.

And while Fatah/the Palestinian Authority/ State of Palestine/PLO –whatever you want to call it is undermining Israel, a long line of Israelis -- Herzog  is just the most obviously gormless -- will be banging the "help Abu Mazin" drum. 

I don't get it.

The Agents of Foreign Influence – groups like B'Tselem and ACCRI did what we would expect of them: and what their paymasters at the EU and in the US and the various foundations (some of them, sigh, Jewish) wanted them to: undermine the war effort and weaken moral.

They were pretty ineffectual.

I saw that Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times had a little kvetch that B'Tselem couldn't buy radio time during the war to damage Israeli morale.

Well, as far as I know, no one has sold anyone radio time in Washington or London to read the names of enemy non-combatants killed by U.S. or British forces.

Nu, Rudoren is disappointed. She came to Jerusalem disappointed with the Zionists and she will leave disappointed with the bad "right-wing" Zionists. She says the whole bloody country is "right-wing" meaning it's nothing like the neighborhood around Zabar's. So many disappointed Jews at the Times. Uncle Tom. Uncle Roger. Bummer.  

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The war should humble us.

Israeli intelligence does not know everything. Let's remember that. We don't know where all the tunnels are. We don't know where the Hamas leaders hide…

Let's remember that's true, too, in connection with our greatest enemy Iran.

Speaking of intelligence, I have a hunch where the bad guys were hiding. Last time I looked, Qatar had a consulate in Gaza. Not sure if Turkey has diplomats stationed in the Strip. I'd bet the enemy command and control was in a bunker underneath a diplomatic mission and not under Shifa hospital.

Just saying.

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People will rightly complain that some of our soldiers went into Gaza  on armored personnel jalopies – terrible. That needs to be investigated. It needs to be fixed.

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Some 705 foreign journalists were sent to Israel to cover the war.

I didn't watch much foreign media during this war. Firstly, there was little time and secondly, I know where they stand on Israel. 

What little I did see and read reinforced this view.

People latched on to a single friendly essay in The Independent (noch) or in the Times (of London).

The Arabs accused the BBC of a pro-Zionist slant. No, I mean it.

The Western press (writ large) does not "get" the war of civilizations or that Israel is engaed in a Long War. It just doesn't and everything else follows from that.

The idea of a zero sum conflict strikes liberals and cosmopolitans and many millennials as archaic.

On the Israeli media, I'd say that I found Channel 2 (intermittently) the least bad. No one beats Ehud Ya'ari for reading the Arab mind or the jingoistic Ronny Daniel for making me feel like I'm a dove. And I also liked to have my convictions tested by Amnon Abramovich.

Yonit Levi did an outstanding job of being Yonit Levi and that’s all I'll say.

Otherwise, Israelis benefitted from some hardworking field reporters and producers and cameramen who deserve our appreciation.

On radio, heroic Carmella Ben Meneshe lost her voice but did a yeoman's job.  

Channel 10 tended to be defeatist – but only intermittently. And I can't help that I enjoy Rafi Reshef.  Channel 1 did its best but with a small budget it was at a decided disadvantage.

Yediot Aharanot and Maariv stayed populist and shallow – like we would expect.

Haaretz wasn't terrible – not all the time – given that it straddles the post-Zionist/anti-Zionist/ quasi Zionist line.

Mekor Rishon was good. Israel Hayom was superb in rallying the nation. Thank you Sheldon Adelson. Seriously.

The haredi papers I saw were also supportive of the war effort.

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I suppose I should wrap up with a word about the Obama administration.

My regulars know that I have argued all U.S. administrations have let Israel down when the going got tough. I've elsewhere given the litany to prove this point. All administrations rightly pursue U.S. interests not Israeli interests.

And anyway, why should Barack Obama treat Israel with any less disdain, arrogance, and meanness than he treats the U.S. Congress?

Would Mitt Romney have been better? History says no.

But I'm wavering. I'm wavering. Obama really is different.

The worst president for Israel? Too early to tell.

      

This time not all the Arabs are with Hamas against Israel

The New York Times ran a revealing article about how some Arab states are siding with Israel over Hamas. 

The piece by David Kirkpatrick, who is based in Cairo for the paper, was not-so-subtly skewed against Israel.

I hope I am not being unfair, but as I read the tone of the piece, Kirkpatrick is basically saying – this is not the way it is supposed to be.

And he seems disappointed.

There is a spitball thrown in about Israeli bombings of UNRWA facilities – as if these are just neutral shelters and not rocket-launching sites; and as if all the fatalities are attributable to Israel when the Times itself has reported Hamas's culpability in some cases.

  

The piece, it strikes me, is also an inferred apology for Secretary of State John Kerry.

But for all my nitpicking here, I am glad to see this coverage. 

Israel is not isolated and – just as in the case of Iran's drive for nuclear weapons – Jerusalem is in sync with Egypt and the Gulf States while Washington is not.

[In fact, on Iran, I'd say that even Ankara is not thrilled.]

Kirkpatrick writes how Israel has the tacit support of Arab states led by Egypt in its war against Hamas in Gaza.

Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have lined up behind Cairo in backing Jerusalem's just military campaign against the Islamic Resistance Movement also known as Hamas.

The Arab Spring, a populist uprising which began in 2010 and empowered political Islam – meaning Islamist forces – unleashed chaos and threatened conservative Arab leaders.

On the whole, the Middle East is worse off today.

The Islamist war in Tunisia continues.

That's true, too, in Algeria.

Libya is a total mess.

Slowly but surely the Islamists are solidifying their position in Morocco though for now violence there is minimal.

You can blame the mess in Syria on the Arab Spring too. And as Syria goes so goes the failed state of Lebanon.

Iraq you can't blame on the Arab Spring. But that's a mess too.

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In contrast to previous Palestinian-Israeli fighting in Gaza, Arab leaders are not pressuring Washington to tell Israel to stop.

"That gives the Israelis leeway," Martin Kramer, an expert on Mideast politics and president of Shalem College in Jerusalem, told Kirkpatrick.

Neither the Cairo-led coalition nor Israel want to see Hamas come out of the current fighting as the most "powerful Palestinian player," said Kramer.

I think the same can be said for the Fatah leadership but they are conniving, twisted, and gutless and understandably Kirkpatrick avoided interviewing them. 

Though maybe a follow up article is coming. I just find the Fatah folks so hypocritical. Their ineptitude lost them Gaza after Israel handed it to them on a silver platter when we disengaged.

They gave us a taste of what might happen if the "West Bank" were handed over to the boys from Fatah.

Anyway...  

Khaled Elgindy of the Brookings Institution told Kirkpatrick much the same. "There is clearly a convergence of interests of these various regimes with Israel." 

"The Arab states' loathing and fear of political Islam is so strong that it outweighs their allergy to Benjamin Netanyahu," the ubiquitous Aaron David Miller told Kirkpatrick.

Hamas is, of course, the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. 

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt overthrew his Muslim Brotherhood predecessor Mohamed Morsi in July 2013. 

While Hosni Mubarak and Morsi led Egypt, Hamas used tunnels between Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula to smuggle weapons and contraband. Mubarak liked to watch Israelis bleed slowly.

Morsi was greedier.

Under Sisi not only have the tunnels been sealed but the border crossings have been only intermittently open.

A storekeeper in northern Gaza said, "Sisi is worse than Netanyahu, and the Egyptians are conspiring against us more than the Jews. They finished the Brotherhood in Egypt, and now they are going after Hamas," according to Kirkpatrick.

In navigating the new constellation of Mideast alliances, the hapless Kerry has come under well-deserved criticism for turning to Qatar and Turkey to serve as his intermediaries with Hamas instead of Egypt.

 Doha and Ankara are backers of Hamas. Qatar not only funds Hamas its Al Jezzera reports on the war. Though in fairness, Al Jezzera is no more or less anti-Zionist than Sky News and Co. which aren't funded out of the Arabian Gulf (as far as we know).

Meanwhile, an Israeli delegation is now in Cairo and Hamas officials from Qatar are expected to arrive there later Thursday as Egyptian intelligence officials make another effort to bring about a cease-fire, Israeli news media has reported.

I don't think the Saudis, Hashemites, or Egyptians harbor secret Zionist sentiments. Like Mahmoud Abbas and the other "moderates" they subscribe to the phased plan for Israel's destruction.

Be that as it may, there has never been a better time to liquidate the Hamas threat. As I said yesterday, you can't take Hamas out of the Palestinian heart, but you can remove the Hamas bone from the Israeli throat.

Never has there been a better time. 

Day 23 of the 2014 Gaza War

The pillbox incident which claimed the lives of five IDF soldiers on Tuesday leaves me shaken.

They were in a lookout tower facing Gaza. They left both the compound gate and the entrance door open.

Repeat -- based on an enemy video -- both doors we're left open. No one on our side is disclaiming.

It was Mohammad Deif who introduced the propaganda video of this incident. 

When Hamas tunnel commandos crawled out of their hole, literally, they had easy access to the pillbox. The gate was open. And the door was open.

The soldiers had no apparent supervision. They were not experienced combat soldiers; they'd been taken out of a course to man this post. But they were soldiers and they were surprised from behind at Nahal Oz.

Gaza surveillance is usually carried out by electronic means conducted by well-trained female soldier-specialists. 

This tragic incident was a fashla -- a botch up of the first order. Add it to the list of deadly mistakes that deserve to be investigated. 

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The cabinet meets again.  Supposedly the PM and DM are willing to go to ceasefire brokered by Egypt with details to be worked out once the firings stop.

 Sounds on the face of it absurd but that's what is being reported.

Israeli reporters keep talking about tunnels destroyed. Hamasniks killed.

Obviously, what matters is the tunnels we didn't destroy yet or don't know about.

What matters is that Hamas command and control is untouched.

We're hearing that Hamas is turning to Egypt, if true, it is significant because Hamas has exceedingly strained relations with Cairo. It is a sign of weakness. 

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It troubles me that smart Israelis are still waiting for salvation from Mahmoud Abbas. Somehow, they say, he will be part of the Gaza solution, in the long term.

There is zero evidence to backup such a supposition, it is a castle built in the air.

That is why I'm inclined today to conclude--

If this war does not end with Hamas on its last legs -- with Israel's deterrence restored -- the message to Hizbollah, much less Iran, and other enemies in the region will be that Israel does not staying power for The Long War.

The constellation of July 2014, with a non threatening Egypt in the south, a Syria riven by civil war in the noth, a Hezbollah tied down in Syria -- Iraq out of the picture - a non threatening ruler in Jordan, and solid control over Judea and Samaria -- this constellation is unlikely to be with us for the next phase of The Long War.

So, my conclusion is, we need to mobilize this country for retaking the Strip and treating it as a buffer zone in the making until the Hamas military threat is removed. 

We will never take Hamas out of the Palestinian heart, but we can take the Hamas bone out of our throat. Now, or maybe, never.   

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Is Barack Obama THE worst US president for Israel?

Some say that President Barack Obama is "the worst president ever" for Israel.

I think the jury is still out. Competition is stiff.

Richard Nixon let us bleed during the Yom Kippur War.

Gerald Ford wanted to reassess the overall US - Israel relationship to side with the Arabs.

Jimmy Carter, well, put simply, he's a Jew-hater - always was. Not much more to say. And that is not a charge I throw around.

Ronald Reagan's heart may have been in the right place but he saved (1982) than recognized the PLO (1988). 

George H.W. Bush gave us James "F*uck" Israel Baker - who brought Tom Friedman into the decision making process at the State Department even as Uncle Tom "reported" for the NYT.

Bill Clinton enabled Oslo and all the metastasized from it. Friends don't let friends Oslo themselves.

Oslo - not disengagement - got us to where we are today in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.

George W. Bush gave us the Road Map and pursued policies that weakened America bogging it down in Iraq and leaving it depleted to deal with al-Qaida and Iran.

Which brings us to the Obama presidency still in progress. 

It is certainly shaping up to be among the worst -- from Israel's point of view. 

From Day 1 of his presidency when he forced Mahmoud Abbas to insist on a "settlement" freeze until Day 20 of the 2014 Gaza War when he sent the sputtering hyperactive John Kerry to muddy the waters here -- Obama has been an unmitigated disaster.  But I understate. 

Still,  to paraphrase Zhou Enlai when asked about the French Revolution: On Obama and Israel it is still "too early to tell" whether he is the absolute worst.