Israeli Elections - Some Predictions

On the way to work today, I took the #21 bus from Talpiot to Marcel’s Barber Shop in town.

Based on what I thought I heard the driver say to one of the passengers, and some of the conversation among the waiting patrons at Marcel’s – plus my own gut feeling that Kadima will not do as well as people think, here is the way I see the Tuesday’s Israeli elections shaping up.


KADIMA 27
LABOR 23
LIKUD 15
NU/NRP 14
SHAS 13
YISRAEL BEITEINU 11
ARAB PARTIES 8
UTJ 5
MERETZ 4

Always prepared to eat humble pie... indeed, hoping to.


HERE ARE the predictions of Avi Hoffmann, former managing editor of The Jerusalem Post:


KADIMA 32
LABOR 23
LIKUD 15
NU/NRP 12
SHAS 12
YISRAEL BEITEINU 10
ARAB PARTIES 7
UTJ 4
MERETZ 5


AND HERE are the predictions of Rev. Elwood McQuaid, one of the leaders of the Christian Zionst movement and a longtime analyst of the Israel scene:

"Never doubt the wisdom of barber shop philosopher/political pundits! However, from a distance: Kadima will, as you forecast, not do as well as the polls suggest: 24/25. Labor will not do as well either: 19/20. Likud will do better: 18/19. Olmert will have rough sledding putting a coalition together."