November 2022 Israeli Elections – Dispiriting for Moderates (updated with final numbers)

Do not Look for a Silver Lining.

The November 1 Israeli Knesset election results are dispiriting for moderates and centrists. It is a lonely time for non-ideologues, those not swept up by the Netanyahu cult of personality, and those not stridently religious.

Netanyahu’s Likud pulled 23.41% of the ballot (1,115,336) popular votes). The Hardal alignment led by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir drew 10.84% of the poll (516,470 popular votes). The Sephardi Haredim of Shas garnered 8.25% (392,964 popular ballots), and the Ashkenazi UTJ Haredim won 5.88% (280,194 popular votes).

That means 2,304,964 Israelis voted for the Netanyahu + Hardel + Haredi bloc giving it control of the Knesset with 64 seats (out of 120).

Elements of the bloc are committed to undermining representative democracy, gutting the judiciary, and imposing theocratic rule. This dreadful scenario won’t happen anytime soon because of in-fighting within this axis of intolerance and demagoguery. However, the November 1 victory is a roadmap to where Israel could be heading if the Hardal–Haredi alliance holds. 

They are now as powerful as Likud, which will likely wane when Netanyahu falters.

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By comparison, the centrist or moderate vote, divided between Lapid with 17.79% (847,435) popular votes) and Gantz, with 9.08% (432,482 popular votes), totaled 1,279,917 or 36 seats out of 120 Knesset seats.

So 1,279,917 moderate voters as against  2,304,964 ballots for the parties of God/Netanyahu.

Also on the anti-Netanyahu side is the ethnic Russian-speaking vote (secular and hawkish but demographically diminishing) of Lieberman, who got 4.48% (213,687 of the popular vote). Merav Michaeli’s hodgepodge Labor drew 3.69% (or 175,992 popular votes). This brings the total number of votes against the Netanyahu axis to 1,669,596.

If you also throw in the Arab Islamist pragmatist who got 4.07% (194,047 popular votes), the total is 1,863,643 popular votes against Netanyahu. 

Only if you stretch to include the stridently anti-Zionist Arab Communist/Nationalist ticket, which drew 3.75% (178,735 popular votes), do you finally pull 2,042,378

Of the voters who supported parties that crossed the threshold, slightly LESS opposed Netanyahu than favored him.

Keep in mind that the anti-Netanyahu camp runs at cross purposes. It has no leader around whom to rally. It is politically, ethnically, and religiously disjointed and poses no threat to the Netanyahu axis. 

The best hope for the anti-Netanyahu camp is to pray his axis devours itself in intramural backbiting.

I see little that gives succor to Israel’s moderate and centrist minority.

I expand on this analysis in my private briefings and lectures – so be in touch to arrange one. Ej5@nyu.edu