What Losing in Gaza Would Look Like for Israel & What it Means Regarding Lebanon
The
chiefs of the CIA and Mossad are scheduled to hold hostage talks with
Qatari and Egyptian spymasters who are in contact with Hamas.
It smells like a deal is in the air.
In almost any possible "deal," the price for Israel would be
defeat in Gaza.
And if we lose in Gaza, it would be futile to embark on a war with Hezbollah.
Losing
would entail (1) an open-ended break in fighting, (2) exchanging hundreds if
not thousands of terrorists with blood on their hands for the remaining captives
or corpses, (3) a photo op of Hamas leaders strolling through the wreckage of
Gaza (4) not seizing control of the Phildelphi corridor (5) failure to facilitate
a Palestinian Authority 2.0 to take over in the Strip and (6) not insisting in
any armistice that the Palestinian Authority 2.0 lease us the right to the 1-kilometer-wide
buffer zone we are clearing on our border with Gaza so there is no “war crime”
claim.
The instant it is clear we did not fail in Gaza, the troubles with Hezbollah
will fall into place.
We will be in a credible position to insist that Hezbollah pull back north of the Litani.
We should offer them a face-saving cosmetic border
concession in the Har Dov area.
But if we trade captives and corpses for a Gaza defeat, we might as well sue for peace with Hezbollah on their terms.
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I am open to running your criticism if it is not ad hominem. I prefer praise, though.