Democratic Values & Civil Liberties are at Risk in Israel as Netanyahu and allies pursue Regime Change

Israel only finds itself at this junction because of the (criminal) Trials of Netanyahu.

Each day reveals new aspects of his vindictive plans for regime change.

Times like these make for strange political bedfellows. The stakes are so high. The ethos of Herzlian Zionism is at risk. What matters is blocking constitutional transformations that would rob Israelis of civil liberties and the values that give the word "democracy" meaning.

<>Netanyahu’s demagogic minister of information has declared that Kol Yisroel / Kan public broadcasting is “racist.” She and Netanyahu want to close publicly supported media outlets.

<>His multiple ministers of religion want gender segregation in our national parks.

<>Without fanfare in Jerusalem, public libraries are already segregated.

<> One of his supporters wants to authorize physicians not to treat Arabs.

<> He has robbed the Minister of Defense of key powers to operate in the West Bank, handing them instead to the leader of the Hardal Religious Zionist Party.

<>He has promised the King of Jordan that there will be no changes in the status quo on the Temple Mount. Yet everyone can see the changes - thousands more visitors, prayers, genuflecting. And his Minister of Internal security is hinting at animal sacrifices for the Passover holiday.

<>Museums open for free to the public on Shabbat are to be closed or forced to charge admission (robbing observant people of the chance to visit)

<>Talmud study will be considered a core educational value and financially rewarded, while English and math will not be required in Haredi schools.

<> A Who’s Who of Israeli economists, Nobel Prize winners among them, and central bankers, many recruited and appointed by Netanyahu, are warning that his plans for regime change will undermine foreign investment in our economy. He dismisses them as leftists and fear-mongers.

<> Law school deans, venture capitalists, medical school deans, and the leaders of our hi-tech community have all come up against regime change.

<> One of his MKs, a former editor who quit 'Israel Today' when it stopped blindly backing Netanyahu, plans to introduce legislation to make it illegal for a secret recording to be used in press exposes. This (according to a secret recording of him!) is just the start of efforts to curb press freedom.

<>Another minister wants to end the generation of electricity on Shabbat.

<> Yet another wants to end all infrastructure work on Shabbat (keeping in mind that Sunday is a regular work day and many children have school on Friday). Much of this work is anyway done by non-Jews.

Lots of folks are piggybacking on the anti-regime change protests. Channel 14 (which is loyal to Netanyahu) reported that the New Israel Fund is financing protests against Netanyahu. I have no reason to doubt this.

But like Donald Trump and Netanyahu himself, not everything the NIF does is wrongheaded. In this instance -- whatever its ulterior motives -- the ends justify the means. After all, Israel is facing its greatest constitutional crisis since 1948.

Most rallies have been organized as cross-party Big Tent protests against regime change based on a single Knesset election (resulting in a 64-56 Knesset). The judicial system needs reform, but it has to come as part of a coherent constitutional plan for Israel, not as a “get-out-of-jail” card for demagogues.

I oppose radical alterations in the judiciary that set the stage for democracy based on pure majority rule. Do we want Israel to be like the UN General Assembly and suffer from the tyranny of the majority?

Those trying to hijack our protest movement to fly enemy flags or carry unrelated banners are playing into the hands of the Netanyahu-Haredi-Hardal camp’s claim that the opposition is comprised of radical, the Godless, and leftists. The negative elements exploiting our protest have their own agenda, and there is no reasoning with them any more than with the Bibists/Hardalnikim and Haredim in control of the government.

Now is the time for liberal Jabotinsky nationalists, centrists, Zionist left-wingers, and indeed Israeli citizens of all stripes and hues to focus on one goal: blocking regime change that will turn this country into a Hardal/Haredi theocracy with limited civil liberties.

For more information, go to 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1512241989262016

To book me to speak to your group or for a briefing on your next visit to Israel email me ej5@nyu.edu

THIS IS US A demographic Look at Israel 2023

Join us this Monday, January 9, at 10:30 AM

Rehovot 

Community Center

Haim Sireni 52 

For a Talk by

ELLIOT JAGER

THIS IS US

A demographic Look at Israel

Who are we? Where do you fit in?

 

The headlines tell us Israel is divided and at a crossroads.

“Ben Gvir faces a dilemma as activists ask to hold Passover sacrifice on Temple Mount”

“Jewish extremists appear to vandalize Christian graves in Old City”

“Israel’s Justice Minister Levin presents dramatic court reforms”

“New government fails to invite AG to the first cabinet meeting, amid threats to fire her”

“‘Override Clause’ Would allow Knesset to pass laws that contradict the country’s 12 Basic Laws and Eliminate the Supreme Court’s ability to Nullify them”

 

Elliot Jager will paint a timely demographic portrait

of Israeli society in 2023

 

Elliot is an NYU-trained political scientist, author, and book editor. He was the editorial page editor at the Jerusalem Post, Jewish world editor at The Jerusalem Report, founding managing editor of Jewish Ideas Daily (Mosaic) and a writer for Newsmax. He is currently working on a primer aimed at Millennials and Zoomers about Jewish Civilization.

 

 

 

November 2022 Israeli Elections – Dispiriting for Moderates (updated with final numbers)

Do not Look for a Silver Lining.

The November 1 Israeli Knesset election results are dispiriting for moderates and centrists. It is a lonely time for non-ideologues, those not swept up by the Netanyahu cult of personality, and those not stridently religious.

Netanyahu’s Likud pulled 23.41% of the ballot (1,115,336) popular votes). The Hardal alignment led by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir drew 10.84% of the poll (516,470 popular votes). The Sephardi Haredim of Shas garnered 8.25% (392,964 popular ballots), and the Ashkenazi UTJ Haredim won 5.88% (280,194 popular votes).

That means 2,304,964 Israelis voted for the Netanyahu + Hardel + Haredi bloc giving it control of the Knesset with 64 seats (out of 120).

Elements of the bloc are committed to undermining representative democracy, gutting the judiciary, and imposing theocratic rule. This dreadful scenario won’t happen anytime soon because of in-fighting within this axis of intolerance and demagoguery. However, the November 1 victory is a roadmap to where Israel could be heading if the Hardal–Haredi alliance holds. 

They are now as powerful as Likud, which will likely wane when Netanyahu falters.

***

By comparison, the centrist or moderate vote, divided between Lapid with 17.79% (847,435) popular votes) and Gantz, with 9.08% (432,482 popular votes), totaled 1,279,917 or 36 seats out of 120 Knesset seats.

So 1,279,917 moderate voters as against  2,304,964 ballots for the parties of God/Netanyahu.

Also on the anti-Netanyahu side is the ethnic Russian-speaking vote (secular and hawkish but demographically diminishing) of Lieberman, who got 4.48% (213,687 of the popular vote). Merav Michaeli’s hodgepodge Labor drew 3.69% (or 175,992 popular votes). This brings the total number of votes against the Netanyahu axis to 1,669,596.

If you also throw in the Arab Islamist pragmatist who got 4.07% (194,047 popular votes), the total is 1,863,643 popular votes against Netanyahu. 

Only if you stretch to include the stridently anti-Zionist Arab Communist/Nationalist ticket, which drew 3.75% (178,735 popular votes), do you finally pull 2,042,378

Of the voters who supported parties that crossed the threshold, slightly LESS opposed Netanyahu than favored him.

Keep in mind that the anti-Netanyahu camp runs at cross purposes. It has no leader around whom to rally. It is politically, ethnically, and religiously disjointed and poses no threat to the Netanyahu axis. 

The best hope for the anti-Netanyahu camp is to pray his axis devours itself in intramural backbiting.

I see little that gives succor to Israel’s moderate and centrist minority.

I expand on this analysis in my private briefings and lectures – so be in touch to arrange one. Ej5@nyu.edu

 

  

 

 

Briefing Wednesday, October 26 – Live and on Zoom – Israel Election

Dear friends,

Israelis will be voting for the 25th Knesset on Tuesday, November 1.

This will be our fifth election in about 2½ years. All have revolved around whether Binyamin Netanyahu should be prime minister.

On Wednesday, October 26 – Live and on Zoom
– I will give a talk in Netanya sponsored by Americans and Canadians in Israel about the political parties, players, and likely consequences of this latest round. The event will last about one hour.

Should your schedule allow, I invite you to tune in via Zoom. Please don’t feel any obligation.

12:30 PM US East Coast (lunchtime)

17:30 in London

19:30 Israel time

You will need to register and pay in advance. Proceeds go to AACI.

For those interested in the topic, this would be a good opportunity to get up to speed.

The fee for non-AACI members is NIS 60 or $17 or GBP 15

Register here

https://netanyaaaci.org.il/event/willwehaveagovernment/

 

Elliot

 

 

 

 

What 9/11 was About

In an erev Shabbat email, a friend in metro-NY commented that he was surprised that al-Qaida’s 9/11/2001 attack on the US homeland had not been repeated.

That got me thinking. Why was that?

I mean, besides the fact that the terrorists who planned it – having lost their safe havens in Afghanistan and Pakistan – were being hunted down and systematically eliminated. And because America repaired the intelligence holes that enabled 9/11 in the first place.

Yet, in a sense, a mega attack did not need to be repeated because the damage done that day 21 years ago achieved its purpose beyond the wildest dreams of its despicable perpetrators.

Who would have imagined the ease with which 19 Jihadist terrorists could hijack four American airliners? And while Islamist suicide bombers had struck many times previously – who would have guessed that they would use civilian planes like bomb-laden dump trucks?

Who would have dreamt that both NYC WTC Towers would collapse in the resulting infernos?

Who would have thought that the Pentagon was so vulnerable? Who could have imagined that America would suffer nearly 3,000 fatalities in one day?

Who could have predicted that the attacks would forever alter the entire experience of air travel?

9/11 still boggles the imagination.

A comparatively small band of Muslim fanatics were able to plot and implement an attack that ensnared the US in two dead-end wars.

So, beyond the initial shock and destruction of the day itself, America was stampeded into occupying two Muslim countries, Afghanistan (starting on October 7, 2001) and Iraq (March 20, 2003).

Occupations that only added fuel to Muslim ire, victimization, and grievance.

The long wars in these lands sapped American willpower and confidence once and for all.

Victory might have been an option had the US been capable of making a WWII-like investment – in personnel (reinstating the military draft), material, treasure, and a willingness to stay for as many decades as it would take to reshape these fragmented Islamic polities into Western democracies. In other words, victory was never an option.

At least in Afghanistan-Pakistan, al-Qaida 1.0 was destroyed.

However, the invasion of Iraq proved to be a strategic blunder of historic proportions. Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. It had no weapons of mass destruction. Washington’s presence empowered Shi’ite Persian Iran to flourish and pursue its imperialist designs in the Middle East. As a consequence of the Iraq debacle, the US is psychically powerless to stop Iran from fielding nuclear weapons when it chooses to do so.

Iraq/Afghanistan-Pakistan exposed the desperation of both the Obama and Trump administrations to withdraw America from the quagmire of endless unwinnable (on the cheap) wars (undeclared) in the Near East.

***

What motivated the 9/11 attacks was Osama bin Laden’s anger that Saudi Arabia had allowed debased Westerners to set up militarily in his adopted country. What made the attacks achievable were the skills of Ayman al-Zawahiri. What united the two was the decision to take the war for Islam’s soul to the West.

The Islamist war against the West did not begin on 9/11 but with the first WTC bombing in February 1993, accelerating with the East African embassy bombings of August 1998.

Al-Qaida has served as a terror incubator – others like ISIS, regional spinoffs, and freelancers took up the banner of jihadist imperialism, among them the July 2005 London attackers and the May 2017 Manchester fanatics, plus those who carried out smaller-scale explosions and stabbings in the UK, Europe and around the world. Let us not forget that British authorities thwarted scores of other attacks, such as the planned blowing up of St Paul’s Cathedral in 2020. 

Meanwhile, in America, while there have been “no more 9/11’s,” there have been many jihadist attacks in the US since 2001. Here is a partial list https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/terrorism-in-america/who-are-the-terrorists/

***

The danger will continue because the threat of violence is largely the result of an internal struggle within Islam over coming to grips with modernity. By that, I mean the notions of tolerance, respect for minorities, and democracy. Islam has yet to experience civilizational reform (like Christianity and Judaism). 

But let us allow ourselves to imagine what a reformed Islam might look like: It would be comfortable sharing space with other peoples and faith traditions literally, spiritually, and symbolically. It would no longer seek to spread Dār al-Islam over what it considers Dār al-Ḥarb (the West and Israel).

We are not there yet.

 

 

Further Reading

Partial Listing of Muslim Terror Attacks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Islamist_terrorist_attacks

 

The Looming Tower: Al-Qaeda and the Road to 9/11, by Lawrence Wright

https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/lawrence-wright